Betting markets and papal forecasters were wildly off in conclave predictions, with only a few gamblers pulling down big bucks on the 1% chance that Chicago-born Cardinal Robert Prevost would become the next pope.
Blockchain-based betting sites Kalshi and Polymarket raked in a whopping $40.4 million in conclave wagers, with most winners scoring on who would walk away a cardinal and very few accurately predicting the 69-year-old Villanova grad would be named pontiff, Forbes reported.
Kalshi gave Chicago’s own Pope Leo XIV a 1% chance heading into the conclave, and fewer than 150 holy rollers placed affirmative bets on then-Cardinal Prevost on that site.
One prophetic propositioner pocketed $52,641 in profit off of a $525 papal prediction, according to a Kalshi post on X.
Betting site Polymarket paid out on six claims that netted at least $20,000, meaning that six people placed at least a $200 bet on the seemingly random dark horse candidate.
One Polymarket wagerer made $63,650.65 in profit off of a $1,059.52 bet, Forbes reported.
While many users place a wide swath of bets on the two sites — one Polymarket user exclusively picked then-Cardinal Prevost to win, according to publicly available data.
That gambler made their first and only papal selection prior to the conclave beginning — and later doubled down — walking away with $16,983.28 in profit, data showed.
On the flip side, at least nine Polymarket gamblers lost $10,000 or more betting on Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, who was the odds-on favorite, according to Forbes.
Parolin’s odds shot up on Thursday morning on both sites, with conclave co-favorite Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle dropping in a flurry of ultimately moot gambling activity hours before the white smoke rose from the Sistine Chapel.