There will be plenty of pressure on the North Carolina Tar Heels on Tuesday evening.
Not only are the Heels in a win-or-go-home spot against San Diego State in the play-in game, but they also have the added baggage of being the most controversial at-large selection in the Field of 68.
UNC went 22-13 overall and had just one “Quadrant 1” win in 13 tries this season.
The Tar Heels did manage to 8-0 in “Quadrant 2” games and played a tough schedule, but it was still a shock to see them get into the Big Dance ahead of Indiana, Boise State, and West Virginia.
Adding to the controversy is the fact that Bubba Cunningham, North Carolina’s athletic director, was on the selection committee, although Cunningham said he was not in the room for the discussion about UNC’s status in the tournament.
The Tar Heels are a 4.5-point favorite over San Diego State on Tuesday night.
Check out our analysis and an exclusive offer from Caesars Sportsbook below.
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North Carolina vs. San Diego odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | -4.5 (-110) | -205 | o142.5 (-110) |
| San Diego State | +4.5 (-110) | +170 | u142.5 (-110) |
UNC vs. San Diego State prediction
This will be an interesting market to monitor.
There’s no question that UNC is the stronger team on paper compared to San Diego State, but you can feel pretty confident that the Aztecs will get plenty of love from bettors who feel that the Tar Heels should never have been invited to the Big Dance.
UNC is normally a public darling and one of the most popular teams in the sport, but they’ll turn heel in this instance.
On the court, these two teams have different strengths.
North Carolina’s offense grades out as the 22nd-best unit in the nation, per KenPom, but its defense is ordinary.
The inverse is true for San Diego State. The Aztecs boast the 11th-best defense in KenPom’s rankings, but the offense sits outside the top 100.
Not only is this a strength-versus-strength matchup, but it’s also a clash of styles.
UNC wants to play quick, while San Diego State ranks 245th in the country in Adjusted Tempo.
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UNC vs. San Diego State pick
The First Four Games usually don’t pack all that much hype, but this one should be different given the controversy.
UNC is going to be under heaps of pressure to prove it belongs, which could go one of two ways. Either the Heels wilt under the heat or they use this as a chance to make a statement.
This number has already moved from 3.5 to 4.5, and it has the potential to be sharps vs. square showdown, with public money backing the underdog and the wiseguys going with the Heels.
The latter seems like the more appealing option, but it’s also worth going big-price hunting and exploring some alternate spreads, as UNC will want to leave no doubt in a win.
You can get +156 odds on UNC to win by double-digits at Caesars.
Pick: UNC -9.5 (+156, Caesers)
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Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.